Research
Research
Guerra, F. (2024). Export quality and wage premium. Review of World Economy, 160, 843–871
Guerra, F. (2023). How taste proximity affects consumer quality valuation of imported varieties: Evidence from the French food sector. The World Economy, 46(9), 2857-2890.
Guerra, F., Napoléone, C., Paoli, J. C., & Moulery, M. (2021). L’impact de l’agriculture sur les incendies de forêt et leur propagation dans les régions méditerranéennes françaises. Cahiers de la Méditerranée, (102), 145-161.
Abstract: A growing literature focuses on the channels through which product quality improves trade performances. In this paper we examine whether quality of a product affects the volatility of its trade flows focusing on a demand-driven mechanism. Fluctuations on the demand of imported products are mainly due to income variability and represents a major source of trade volatility for the exporters. Under the hypothesis that higher quality products are more income elastic than the lower quality ones, we expect to observe a higher variability in export volumes for high-quality products. The analysis is conducted on bilateral trade for more than 100 countries over the period 1997 – 2008. To estimate product quality, we rely on a residual-demand approach and infer quality as a residual of a structural demand model. The results show that export of high quality products are more volatile on international markets, and that the export volatility increases with quality as the variability of income per capita of the importer growths.
Digital tools and firm trade resilience in the wake of COVID-19.
(with Massimo Riccaboni, Francesco Serti and Dolores Añón Higón)
Abstract: This study investigates the role of specific ICT tools in enhancing the export resilience of French firms during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using firm-level data from the 2019 French ICT survey, financial reports, and monthly trade records, the analysis compares firms adopting specific digital technologies during the pre-pandemic period with non-adopters. Employing a difference-in-differences approach, the analysis seeks to identify which digital tools contributed to firms’ ability to withstand economic shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. Preliminary results indicate that firms utilizing e-commerce and customized services were more resilient, maintaining higher export levels during the crisis. Conversely, artificial intelligence, IT workforce development, and cybersecurity measures correlated with higher productivity but did not directly impact export resilience.
Reducing Export Uncertainty: The Impact of the US-Colombia Free Trade Agreement.
Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of the 2012 US–Colombia Free Trade Agreement on Colombian firms’ export margins. Before the FTA, most exports already enjoyed preferential access, but under temporary programs that created substantial trade policy uncertainty. The FTA introduced a permanent and credible framework without major tariff changes, reducing uncertainty. Using detailed firm–product–destination data and a triple-difference estimation, we find that the agreement significantly increased exports of treated products to the US, primarily by lowering uncertainty, with some modest indirect effects. The findings highlight the importance of stable trade policy for export growth and firm-level investment.