Research
Research
Guerra, F. (2024). Export quality and wage premium. Review of World Economy, 160, 843–871
Guerra, F. (2023). How taste proximity affects consumer quality valuation of imported varieties: Evidence from the French food sector. The World Economy, 46(9), 2857-2890.
Guerra, F., Napoléone, C., Paoli, J. C., & Moulery, M. (2021). L’impact de l’agriculture sur les incendies de forêt et leur propagation dans les régions méditerranéennes françaises. Cahiers de la Méditerranée, (102), 145-161.
Abstract: A growing literature focuses on the channels through which product quality improves trade performances. In this paper we examine whether quality of a product affects the volatility of its trade flows focusing on a demand-driven mechanism. Fluctuations on the demand of imported products are mainly due to income variability and represents a major source of trade volatility for the exporters. Under the hypothesis that higher quality products are more income elastic than the lower quality ones, we expect to observe a higher variability in export volumes for high-quality products. The analysis is conducted on bilateral trade for more than 100 countries over the period 1997 – 2008. To estimate product quality, we rely on a residual-demand approach and infer quality as a residual of a structural demand model. The results show that export of high quality products are more volatile on international markets, and that the export volatility increases with quality as the variability of income per capita of the importer growths.
Resilience in the face of disruption: the role of ICT in strengthening firms during COVID
(with Massimo Riccaboni, Francesco Serti and Dolores Añón Higón)
Abstract: This study investigates the role of specific ICT tools in enhancing the export resilience of French firms during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using firm-level data from the 2019 French ICT survey, financial reports, and monthly trade records, the analysis compares firms adopting specific digital technologies during the pre-pandemic period with non-adopters. Employing a difference-in-differences approach, the analysis seeks to identify which digital tools contributed to firms’ ability to withstand economic shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. Preliminary results indicate that firms utilizing e-commerce and customized services were more resilient, maintaining higher export levels during the crisis. Conversely, artificial intelligence, IT workforce development, and cybersecurity measures correlated with higher productivity but did not directly impact export resilience.
Studying the impact of unfavorable trade shocks on firms via Machine Learning methods
Abstract: This research explores the complex impacts of negative trade shocks on French companies using advanced machine learning techniques. The aim of the project is to analyze how French companies have reacted to these shocks and to identify the characteristics of those that have successfully redirected their exports, taking into account the complex dynamics of interconnected markets where other countries have also faced the same challenge. In addition, the project examines the impact on production and employment, distinguishing between workers according to the positions they occupy. By comprehensively examining these aspects, the research aims to provide information for policy-makers in dealing with trade shocks and their consequences.